OGA Dota PIT Season 5. Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Sparking Arrow Gaming
Elder Titan
XCJ · 8 games
Phoenix
XCJ · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
September · 7 games
Shadow Shaman
September · 7 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Son GoKu · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Son GoKu · 5 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
XCJ · 4 games
Axeoften banned
Son GoKu · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
434 picks · 179 bans
Nyx Assassin
315 picks · 624 bans
Hoodwink
311 picks · 122 bans
Puck
311 picks · 698 bans
Ancient Apparition
310 picks · 477 bans
Mars
295 picks · 526 bans
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 332 bans
Lina
265 picks · 358 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 27%
Hero pool strength56% Royal Never Give Up
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total70% Royal Never Give Up
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:11
Royal Never Give Up 70%Sparking Arrow Gaming 30%
The model gave 70% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 36:13.
Game 2prediction missed25:21
Royal Never Give Up 70%Sparking Arrow Gaming 30%
The model gave 70% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 40:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 70%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2