ESL One Fall 2021. Закрытая квалификация · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzswin 2:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Spider Pigzs
Hoodwink
LeBronDota · 13 games
Lunaoften banned
Koma` · 13 games
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 12 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 12 games
Void Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 11 games
Shadow Shaman
dnz · 11 games
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 22 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 18 games
Hoodwink
Heaven · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 14 games
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 12 games
Lion
Lodine · 12 games
Dark Willow
Heaven · 11 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Kiritych · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
433 picks · 179 bans
Nyx Assassin
315 picks · 622 bans
Ancient Apparition
310 picks · 477 bans
Puck
310 picks · 698 bans
Hoodwink
307 picks · 122 bans
Mars
294 picks · 525 bans
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 332 bans
Lina
264 picks · 358 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total64% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:38
Spider Pigzs 41%Nemiga Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 37:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunalightless
Chaos KnightKiritych
PuckNo!ob
TinyAinkrad
BroodmotherFunn1k
LinaTheChosenOne
LionOmaR
Nyx AssassinHeaven
HoodwinkLeBronDota
GrimstrokeLodine
Game 2prediction missed33:9
Spider Pigzs 41%Nemiga Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 30:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death ProphetNo!ob
LifestealerKiritych
Terrorbladelightless
BristlebackAinkrad
Sand KingFunn1k
Dark SeerTheChosenOne
Dark WillowOmaR
TinyHeaven
AbaddonLeBronDota
HoodwinkLodine
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 64%
Series resultSpider Pigzs 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2