ESL One Fall 2021. Закрытая квалификация · BO3
result vs prediction
V-Gamingwin 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Uniqueloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
V-Gaming
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 17 games
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 12 games
Linasignature
hAze · 12 games
Puckoften banned
hAze · 11 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 9 games
Viperoften banned
hAze · 9 games
Marssignature
laise · 8 games
Terrorbladesignature
TA2000 · 8 games
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
431 picks · 176 bans
Nyx Assassin
315 picks · 623 bans
Ancient Apparition
310 picks · 477 bans
Puck
309 picks · 695 bans
Hoodwink
301 picks · 122 bans
Mars
290 picks · 522 bans
Dragon Knight
263 picks · 330 bans
Lina
263 picks · 352 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total53% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:33
V-Gaming 53%Team Unique 47%
The model gave 53% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Team Unique in 43:07.
Game 2prediction correct26:22
V-Gaming 53%Team Unique 47%
The model gave 53% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 41:47.
Game 3prediction correct23:10
V-Gaming 53%Team Unique 47%
The model gave 53% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 33:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 53%
Series resultV-Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3