ESL One Fall 2021. Закрытая квалификация · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ICit's coming romewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
it's coming rome
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
431 picks · 176 bans
Nyx Assassin
315 picks · 623 bans
Ancient Apparition
310 picks · 477 bans
Puck
309 picks · 695 bans
Hoodwink
301 picks · 122 bans
Mars
290 picks · 522 bans
Dragon Knight
263 picks · 330 bans
Lina
263 picks · 352 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:25
PuckChamp 56%it's coming rome 44%
The model gave 56% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by it's coming rome in 38:14.
Game 2prediction missed32:18
PuckChamp 56%it's coming rome 44%
The model gave 56% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by it's coming rome in 34:31.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 56%
Series resultit's coming rome 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2