ESL One Fall 2021. Закрытая квалификация · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzsloss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Creepwavewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Spider Pigzs
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 13 games
Lunaoften banned
lil pleb · 13 games
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
Hoodwink
LeBronDota · 12 games
Shadow Shaman
dnz · 11 games
Void Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 11 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
dnz · 10 games
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 10 games
Creepwave
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 13 games
Marsoften banned
ATF · 11 games
Death Prophetsignature
Malr1ne · 10 games
Banesignature
Fishman · 7 games
Juggernautoften banned
Crystallis · 7 games
Miranasignature
MiLAN · 7 games
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 7 games
Earthshaker
MiLAN · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
429 picks · 175 bans
Nyx Assassin
312 picks · 621 bans
Ancient Apparition
309 picks · 477 bans
Puck
304 picks · 692 bans
Hoodwink
295 picks · 121 bans
Mars
287 picks · 517 bans
Lina
262 picks · 345 bans
Dragon Knight
261 picks · 329 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 5
Model total63% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:21
Spider Pigzs 44%Creepwave 56%
The model gave 56% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 28:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladelightless
Phantom LancerCrystallis
Void SpiritNo!ob
RazorATF
MarsFunn1k
Puckbzm
EnchantressLeBronDota
Nyx AssassinChuvash
LionOmaR
Winter WyvernKataomi
Game 2prediction missed28:30
Spider Pigzs 46%Creepwave 54%
The model gave 54% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 45:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladelightless
Monkey KingCrystallis
PuckNo!ob
Sand KingATF
SlardarFunn1k
Storm Spiritbzm
Shadow DemonOmaR
HoodwinkChuvash
ClockwerkLeBronDota
LionKataomi
Game 3prediction correct35:47
Spider Pigzs 45%Creepwave 55%
The model gave 55% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 1:20:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladelightless
SvenCrystallis
PangolierNo!ob
RazorATF
HoodwinkOmaR
Winter WyvernKataomi
BeastmasterFunn1k
Nyx AssassinChuvash
Vengeful SpiritLeBronDota
Invokerbzm
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 63%
Series resultCreepwave 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3