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ESL One Fall 2021. Закрытая квалификация · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
VANSKOR · 16 games
63%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 15 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 11 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Petushara · 11 games
55%
Lina
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 8 games
75%
Luna
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 7 games
86%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 7 games
43%
Tusk
Tusk
sayuw · 7 games
57%

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 22 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 17 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 14 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 14 games
64%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 12 games
42%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 12 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 11 games
45%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Kiritych · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
429 picks · 175 bans
54%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
312 picks · 621 bans
55%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
309 picks · 477 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
304 picks · 692 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
295 picks · 121 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
287 picks · 517 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
262 picks · 345 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
261 picks · 329 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Team Empire
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:7
Team Empire 48%Nemiga Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Team Empire in 27:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voiddyrachyo
53% · 87 games49% · 120 games
LunaKiritych
Luna
Puck
Puckkiyotaka
47% · 328 games52% · 95 games
DoomTheChosenOne
Doom
Dark Seer
Dark SeerShachlo
52% · 92 games47% · 257 games
Void SpiritAinkrad
Void Spirit
Clockwerk
Clockwerksayuw
52% · 153 games49% · 78 games
Shadow DemonHeaven
Shadow Demon
Hoodwink
HoodwinkVANSKOR
46% · 123 games52% · 233 games
Nyx AssassinLodine
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed33:7
Team Empire 48%Nemiga Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Team Empire in 29:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinkiyotaka
58% · 114 games54% · 97 games
TerrorbladeKiritych
Terrorblade
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
52% · 19 games39% · 68 games
AxeTheChosenOne
Axe
Brewmaster
BrewmasterShachlo
43% · 44 games52% · 79 games
InvokerAinkrad
Invoker
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsayuw
53% · 61 game48% · 76 games
EnchantressHeaven
Enchantress
Hoodwink
HoodwinkVANSKOR
51% · 155 games45% · 73 games
ClockwerkLodine
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 54%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2