ESL One Fall 2021. Закрытая квалификация · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
V-Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
V-Gaming
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 17 games
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 12 games
Linasignature
hAze · 10 games
Puckoften banned
hAze · 10 games
Viperoften banned
hAze · 9 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 8 games
Marssignature
laise · 8 games
Timbersawsignature
laise · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
429 picks · 175 bans
Nyx Assassin
312 picks · 621 bans
Ancient Apparition
309 picks · 477 bans
Puck
304 picks · 692 bans
Hoodwink
295 picks · 121 bans
Mars
287 picks · 517 bans
Lina
262 picks · 345 bans
Dragon Knight
261 picks · 329 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 65%
Hero pool strength54% V-Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total51% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:25
PuckChamp 49%V-Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 41:55.
Game 2prediction correct32:15
PuckChamp 49%V-Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 33:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 51%
Series resultV-Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2