OGA Dota PIT Season 5. Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 0:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Elephantwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Grimstroke
Dy · 23 games
Void Spiritsignature
Ori · 23 games
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 20 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 20 games
Timbersawsignature
ELeVeN · 20 games
Spectresignature
poyoyo · 19 games
Earth Spirit
Pyw · 18 games
Lion
Pyw · 18 games
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
429 picks · 173 bans
Nyx Assassin
311 picks · 618 bans
Ancient Apparition
309 picks · 476 bans
Puck
304 picks · 690 bans
Hoodwink
293 picks · 119 bans
Mars
285 picks · 518 bans
Lina
260 picks · 343 bans
Dragon Knight
259 picks · 327 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total66% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:19
Vici Gaming 66%Elephant 34%
The model gave 66% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Elephant in 26:19.
Game 2prediction missed16:33
Vici Gaming 66%Elephant 34%
The model gave 66% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Elephant in 41:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 66%
Series resultElephant 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2