OGA Dota PIT Season 5. Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Sparking Arrow Gaming
Elder Titan
XCJ · 8 games
Phoenix
XCJ · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
September · 7 games
Shadow Shaman
September · 7 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Son GoKu · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Son GoKu · 5 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
XCJ · 4 games
Axeoften banned
Son GoKu · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
432 picks · 172 bans
Ancient Apparition
312 picks · 477 bans
Nyx Assassin
309 picks · 620 bans
Puck
306 picks · 691 bans
Hoodwink
292 picks · 119 bans
Mars
288 picks · 519 bans
Lina
261 picks · 344 bans
Dragon Knight
259 picks · 326 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 30%
Hero pool strength56% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total78% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:29
Invictus Gaming 78%Sparking Arrow Gaming 22%
The model gave 78% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 45:00.
Game 2prediction missed32:46
Invictus Gaming 78%Sparking Arrow Gaming 22%
The model gave 78% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 40:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 78%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2