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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fiveloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Spider Pigzswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fantastic Five

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 16 games
75%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 15 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 11 games
55%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
633 · 9 games
78%
Underlord
Underlord
SuperNova · 8 games
38%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
633 · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Muka · 7 games
29%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Askold · 7 games
29%

Spider Pigzs

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 13 games
23%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Koma` · 13 games
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
LeBronDota · 12 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dnz · 11 games
36%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 11 games
27%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
dnz · 10 games
30%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
432 picks · 171 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
312 picks · 476 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
309 picks · 620 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
305 picks · 689 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
290 picks · 119 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
285 picks · 519 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
259 picks · 323 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
259 picks · 343 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% Fantastic Five
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Spider Pigzs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:18
Fantastic Five 49%Spider Pigzs 51%
The model gave 51% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 35:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Riki
RikiAskold
46% · 44 games46% · 82 games
Morphlinglil pleb
Morphling
Mars
MarsActor
51% · 238 games48% · 123 games
TidehunterFunn1k
Tidehunter
Grimstroke
GrimstrokejAMES
46% · 187 games58% · 107 games
Invokerlightless
Invoker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFervian
49% · 112 games55% · 115 games
MiranaOmaR
Mirana
51% · 154 games
AbaddonLeBronDota
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct17:30
Fantastic Five 47%Spider Pigzs 53%
The model gave 53% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 33:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaAskold
49% · 132 games46% · 31 game
Svenlil pleb
Sven
Brewmaster
BrewmasterActor
56% · 53 games51% · 136 games
Pucklightless
Puck
Hoodwink
Hoodwink633
46% · 117 games46% · 157 games
MarsFunn1k
Mars
Clockwerk
ClockwerkjAMES
47% · 130 games56% · 45 games
Treant ProtectorLeBronDota
Treant Protector
55% · 63 games
Shadow DemonOmaR
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct11:29
Fantastic Five 48%Spider Pigzs 52%
The model gave 52% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 26:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mars
MarsActor
48% · 131 game45% · 39 games
Svenlil pleb
Sven
Riki
RikiAskold
36% · 28 games62% · 115 games
Invokerlightless
Invoker
Lina
LinajAMES
48% · 94 games45% · 89 games
Sand KingFunn1k
Sand King
Grimstroke
Grimstroke633
48% · 95 games44% · 44 games
Treant ProtectorLeBronDota
Treant Protector
63% · 61 game
Shadow DemonOmaR
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteSpider Pigzs · 52%
Series resultSpider Pigzs 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3