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OGA Dota PIT Season 5. Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 30 games
80%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 29 games
72%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 23 games
74%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 23 games
74%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 19 games
74%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
y` · 18 games
83%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 17 games
76%
Magnus
Magnussignature
NothingToSay · 17 games
71%

Aster.Aries

Puck
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 14 games
36%
Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 12 games
42%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 10 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fantasy · 9 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Fantasy · 8 games
25%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 8 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 8 games
38%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
432 picks · 171 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
312 picks · 476 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
310 picks · 621 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
304 picks · 690 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
290 picks · 119 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
286 picks · 521 bans
50%
Lina
Lina
259 picks · 343 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
258 picks · 322 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 53%
Hero pool strength66% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total86% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:34
LGD Gaming 74%Aster.Aries 26%
The model gave 74% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 55:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
PudgeAme
36% · 6 games39% · 66 games
BloodseekerUlu
Bloodseeker
Doom
DoomNothingToSay
54% · 47 games52% · 109 games
Linaphoenix
Lina
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFaith_bian
53% · 36 games52% · 91 game
Timbersaw生死
Timbersaw
Phoenix
PhoenixXinQ
56% · 151 game43% · 80 games
Winter WyvernFantasy
Winter Wyvern
Grimstroke
Grimstrokey`
50% · 106 games
Game 2prediction correct44:36
LGD Gaming 73%Aster.Aries 27%
The model gave 73% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 43:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusNothingToSay
51% · 66 games44% · 72 games
MorphlingUlu
Morphling
Pudge
PudgeAme
little data51% · 124 games
Puckphoenix
Puck
Sand King
Sand KingFaith_bian
52% · 83 games47% · 82 games
Dragon Knight生死
Dragon Knight
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptery`
51% · 76 games52% · 129 games
PhoenixFantasy
Phoenix
Mirana
MiranaXinQ
51% · 182 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 86%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2