Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 3:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Hellbear Smashersloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Miranasignature
Mira · 28 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 23 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 22 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 20 games
Lionsignature
Miposhka · 17 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 17 games
Oracleoften banned
Miposhka · 16 games
Tinysignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 16 games
Hellbear Smashers
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 25 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Ace · 23 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 20 games
Linaoften banned
Stormstormer · 20 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 19 games
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 19 games
Hoodwink
Gilgir · 18 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ace · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
429 picks · 174 bans
Ancient Apparition
311 picks · 475 bans
Nyx Assassin
310 picks · 620 bans
Puck
304 picks · 694 bans
Mars
294 picks · 519 bans
Hoodwink
284 picks · 120 bans
Lina
260 picks · 343 bans
Dragon Knight
258 picks · 328 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 59%
Hero pool strength58% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total68% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:25
Team Spirit 61%Hellbear Smashers 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 45:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeYatoro
Lone DruidAce
PuckTORONTOTOKYO
Templar AssassinStormstormer
Dark SeerCollapse
MarsGeneRaL
TinyMira
PugnaGilgir
HoodwinkMiposhka
LiontOfu
Game 2prediction correct53:20
Team Spirit 57%Hellbear Smashers 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 53:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingYatoro
Wraith KingAce
PuckTORONTOTOKYO
InvokerStormstormer
MagnusCollapse
EarthshakerGeneRaL
HoodwinkMira
Nyx AssassinGilgir
Ancient ApparitionMiposhka
LiontOfu
Game 3prediction correct35:15
Team Spirit 62%Hellbear Smashers 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeYatoro
SpectreAce
Winter WyvernTORONTOTOKYO
WindrangerStormstormer
Sand KingCollapse
BatriderGeneRaL
Shadow DemonMiposhka
WarlocktOfu
MiranaMira
Dragon KnightGilgir
Game 4prediction correct34:4
Team Spirit 62%Hellbear Smashers 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 23:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightYatoro
Templar AssassinStormstormer
MagnusCollapse
AxeAce
InvokerTORONTOTOKYO
Void SpiritGeneRaL
PhoenixMira
GrimstroketOfu
HoodwinkMiposhka
Dark WillowGilgir
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 68%
Series resultTeam Spirit 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4