ESL One Fall 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SKSquelch Kommandoloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 21 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 14 games
Hoodwink
Heaven · 13 games
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 12 games
Lion
Lodine · 12 games
Dark Willow
Heaven · 11 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Kiritych · 10 games
Squelch Kommando
Drow Rangeroften banned
Koma` · 1 game
Elder Titan
so bad · 1 game
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
re1bl · 1 game
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
swedenstrong · 1 game
Svenoften banned
Koma` · 1 game
Winter Wyvern
so bad · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
429 picks · 173 bans
Ancient Apparition
312 picks · 477 bans
Nyx Assassin
312 picks · 620 bans
Puck
307 picks · 693 bans
Mars
294 picks · 520 bans
Hoodwink
283 picks · 119 bans
Lina
261 picks · 344 bans
Dragon Knight
258 picks · 327 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:7
Nemiga Gaming 57%Squelch Kommando 43%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 25:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaKiritych
TerrorbladeKoma`
KunkkaTheChosenOne
Storm Spiritre1bl
LeshracAinkrad
Skywrath Mageswedenstrong
HoodwinkLodine
Abaddonso bad
Shadow DemonHeaven
Game 2prediction correct8:23
Nemiga Gaming 63%Squelch Kommando 37%
The model gave 63% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 63%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2