ESL One Fall 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO4
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 1:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:0
KXkomanda xloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 21 game
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 14 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 14 games
Hoodwink
Heaven · 13 games
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 12 games
Lion
Lodine · 12 games
Dark Willow
Heaven · 11 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Kiritych · 10 games
komanda x
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
426 picks · 171 bans
Ancient Apparition
311 picks · 476 bans
Nyx Assassin
311 picks · 617 bans
Puck
303 picks · 690 bans
Mars
294 picks · 516 bans
Hoodwink
281 picks · 118 bans
Lina
260 picks · 342 bans
Dragon Knight
257 picks · 327 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct52:35
Nemiga Gaming 71%komanda x 29%
The model gave 71% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 42:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 71%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1