Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniqueloss 1:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Hellbear Smashers
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 23 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Ace · 23 games
Linaoften banned
Stormstormer · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 19 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 19 games
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 19 games
Hoodwink
Gilgir · 17 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ace · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
426 picks · 171 bans
Ancient Apparition
311 picks · 476 bans
Nyx Assassin
311 picks · 617 bans
Puck
303 picks · 690 bans
Mars
294 picks · 516 bans
Hoodwink
281 picks · 118 bans
Lina
260 picks · 342 bans
Dragon Knight
257 picks · 327 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total65% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:18
Team Unique 35%Hellbear Smashers 65%
The model gave 65% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 53:39.
Game 2prediction correct13:30
Team Unique 35%Hellbear Smashers 65%
The model gave 65% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 31:07.
Game 3prediction correct24:23
Team Unique 35%Hellbear Smashers 65%
The model gave 65% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 37:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 65%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3