ESL One Fall 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 1:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:0
RResidentSleeperloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 21 game
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 14 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 14 games
Hoodwink
Heaven · 13 games
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 12 games
Lion
Lodine · 12 games
Dark Willow
Heaven · 11 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Kiritych · 10 games
ResidentSleeper
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
426 picks · 171 bans
Ancient Apparition
313 picks · 475 bans
Nyx Assassin
310 picks · 617 bans
Puck
304 picks · 691 bans
Mars
295 picks · 517 bans
Hoodwink
280 picks · 119 bans
Lina
261 picks · 340 bans
Dragon Knight
259 picks · 327 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 72%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect