ESL One Fall 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Khanloss 0:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:1
B8 Esportswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Khan
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 1 game
Lion
goddam · 1 game
Lunaoften banned
layme · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
goddam · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
layme · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
pJonn · 1 game
B8 Esports
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 11 games
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 11 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 9 games
Magnus
Limitless · 9 games
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 9 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 8 games
Shadow Shaman
[T]SA · 8 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Davai · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
426 picks · 171 bans
Ancient Apparition
313 picks · 475 bans
Nyx Assassin
310 picks · 617 bans
Puck
304 picks · 691 bans
Mars
295 picks · 517 bans
Hoodwink
280 picks · 119 bans
Lina
261 picks · 340 bans
Dragon Knight
259 picks · 327 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 42%
Hero pool strength58% Khan
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 52%
Series resultB8 Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect