OGA Dota PIT Season 5. Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:1series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Invictus Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
425 picks · 171 bans
Ancient Apparition
312 picks · 474 bans
Nyx Assassin
307 picks · 615 bans
Puck
304 picks · 688 bans
Mars
295 picks · 516 bans
Hoodwink
279 picks · 119 bans
Lina
259 picks · 339 bans
Dragon Knight
258 picks · 325 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% Royal Never Give Up
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total68% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct54:27
Royal Never Give Up 32%Invictus Gaming 68%
The model gave 68% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 53:48.
Game 2prediction correct33:14
Royal Never Give Up 32%Invictus Gaming 68%
The model gave 68% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 33:10.
Game 3prediction correct30:14
Royal Never Give Up 32%Invictus Gaming 68%
The model gave 68% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 31:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 68%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3