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ESL One Fall 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
it's coming romewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 21 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 14 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 13 games
46%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 12 games
42%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 12 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 12 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 11 games
45%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Kiritych · 10 games
60%

it's coming rome

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
427 picks · 171 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
312 picks · 471 bans
55%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
305 picks · 620 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
301 picks · 695 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
298 picks · 522 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
274 picks · 114 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
259 picks · 338 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
255 picks · 317 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:41
Nemiga Gaming 57%it's coming rome 43%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by it's coming rome in 37:18.
Game 2prediction missed14:29
Nemiga Gaming 57%it's coming rome 43%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by it's coming rome in 30:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 57%
Series resultit's coming rome 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2