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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 15 games
73%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nine · 15 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Sneyking · 13 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Sneyking · 12 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 12 games
75%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Fata · 10 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 10 games
70%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
33 · 9 games
67%

Hellbear Smashers

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 23 games
78%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Ace · 23 games
57%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Stormstormer · 20 games
35%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 19 games
53%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 19 games
79%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 18 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gilgir · 17 games
53%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ace · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
426 picks · 172 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
313 picks · 471 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
305 picks · 623 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
300 picks · 695 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
297 picks · 525 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
273 picks · 114 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
257 picks · 336 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
255 picks · 312 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:40
Tundra Esports 49%Hellbear Smashers 51%
The model gave 51% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 43:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSkiter
54% · 137 games51% · 112 games
AxeAce
Axe
Timbersaw
Timbersaw33
50% · 183 games44% · 258 games
MarsGeneRaL
Mars
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBOOM
44% · 201 game57% · 39 games
WindrangerStormstormer
Windranger
Clockwerk
Clockwerkdnz
54% · 165 games52% · 177 games
PhoenixGilgir
Phoenix
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSneyking
49% · 151 game50% · 251 game
LiontOfu
Lion
Game 2prediction correct18:33
Tundra Esports 49%Hellbear Smashers 51%
The model gave 51% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 40:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaBOOM
51% · 126 games41% · 21 game
Naga SirenAce
Naga Siren
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSkiter
50% · 148 games55% · 125 games
PangolierGeneRaL
Pangolier
Viper
Viper33
48% · 90 games48% · 236 games
PuckStormstormer
Puck
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyverndnz
57% · 116 games41% · 77 games
Elder TitanGilgir
Elder Titan
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinSneyking
57% · 259 games46% · 280 games
LiontOfu
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 54%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2