ESL One Fall 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
V-Gamingwin 1:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:0
SKSquelch Kommandoloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
V-Gaming
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 16 games
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 10 games
Puckoften banned
hAze · 10 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 8 games
Linaoften banned
hAze · 8 games
Marssignature
laise · 8 games
Viperoften banned
hAze · 8 games
Dark Willow
ArrOw · 7 games
Squelch Kommando
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
426 picks · 170 bans
Ancient Apparition
313 picks · 470 bans
Nyx Assassin
305 picks · 621 bans
Puck
298 picks · 694 bans
Mars
296 picks · 523 bans
Hoodwink
271 picks · 114 bans
Lina
256 picks · 334 bans
Dragon Knight
255 picks · 309 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:11
V-Gaming 54%Squelch Kommando 46%
The model gave 54% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 37:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeTA2000
Puckre1bl
LinahAze
Drow RangerKoma`
Axelaise
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
EnchantressArrOw
Elder Titanso bad
AbaddonMalady
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 60%
Series resultV-Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1