ESL One Fall 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs predictionDD2Playerswin 1:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:0
ZSzlie slonloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
D2Players
No games played over 6 months.
zlie slon
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
427 picks · 170 bans
Ancient Apparition
314 picks · 469 bans
Nyx Assassin
305 picks · 620 bans
Puck
298 picks · 694 bans
Mars
297 picks · 523 bans
Hoodwink
269 picks · 113 bans
Enchantress
256 picks · 344 bans
Dragon Knight
255 picks · 308 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% D2Players
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% D2Players
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:48
D2Players 52%zlie slon 48%
The model gave 52% on D2Players — the game was taken by zlie slon in 39:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteD2Players · 52%
Series resultD2Players 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1