Brame vs SUPER MEGA SQUAD — prediction EOF2ОО · Dota 2

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ESL One Fall 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1

result vs prediction

Brameloss 0:1

series probability

65%35%

probability at match start · final 0:1

SMSUPER MEGA SQUADwin 1:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Linaoften banned

CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games

46%

Juggernautoften banned

Focus · 12 games

50%

Keeper of the Light

SsaSpartan · 12 games

58%

Templar Assassinoften banned

W1sh- · 12 games

42%

Grimstroke

SsaSpartan · 11 games

18%

Morphlingoften banned

Focus · 11 games

36%

Dark Willowsignature

SsaSpartan · 10 games

70%

Beastmastersignature

SkyLark · 9 games

67%

SUPER MEGA SQUAD

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Lion

426 picks · 170 bans

53%

Ancient Apparition

313 picks · 469 bans

56%

Nyx Assassin

305 picks · 620 bans

56%

Puck

298 picks · 693 bans

49%

Mars

297 picks · 523 bans

49%

Hoodwink

269 picks · 112 bans

49%

Enchantress

256 picks · 344 bans

47%

Lina

255 picks · 333 bans

47%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)35% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% Brame

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total65% Brame

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed40:47

Brame 57%SUPER MEGA SQUAD 43%

The model gave 57% on Brame — the game was taken by SUPER MEGA SQUAD in 48:34.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo