ESL One Fall 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs predictionQqwertywin 1:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Hippomaniacsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
qwerty
No games played over 6 months.
Hippomaniacs
Kunkkaoften banned
Supream^ · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
425 picks · 168 bans
Ancient Apparition
312 picks · 469 bans
Nyx Assassin
303 picks · 618 bans
Puck
298 picks · 691 bans
Mars
296 picks · 521 bans
Hoodwink
267 picks · 112 bans
Enchantress
257 picks · 344 bans
Lina
257 picks · 330 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 25%
Hero pool strength56% qwerty
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% qwerty
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteqwerty · 80%
Series resultqwerty 1:0
Series predictioncorrect