?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Fall 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Squelch Kommando
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start
Creepwave
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Squelch Kommando

No games played over 6 months.

Creepwave

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 13 games
62%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 11 games
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Malr1ne · 10 games
90%
Bane
Banesignature
Fishman · 7 games
71%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Crystallis · 7 games
57%
Mirana
Miranasignature
MiLAN · 7 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 7 games
29%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
MiLAN · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
425 picks · 168 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
312 picks · 469 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
303 picks · 618 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
298 picks · 691 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
296 picks · 521 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
267 picks · 112 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
257 picks · 344 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
257 picks · 330 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 51%