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OGA Dota PIT Season 5. Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Uploss 1:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Asterwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Royal Never Give Up

No games played over 6 months.

Team Aster

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 21 game
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
White丶Album · 21 game
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 19 games
53%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 15 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
LaNm · 15 games
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
LaNm · 13 games
54%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 13 games
46%
Axe
Axesignature
Xxs · 11 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
426 picks · 169 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
313 picks · 468 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
304 picks · 613 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
299 picks · 691 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
296 picks · 526 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
264 picks · 111 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
258 picks · 342 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
256 picks · 334 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total74% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:18
Royal Never Give Up 26%Team Aster 74%
The model gave 74% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 29:14.
Game 2prediction correct15:15
Royal Never Give Up 26%Team Aster 74%
The model gave 74% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 32:15.
Game 3prediction correct20:4
Royal Never Give Up 26%Team Aster 74%
The model gave 74% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 25:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 74%
Series resultTeam Aster 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3