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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzsloss 1:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Winstrike Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Spider Pigzs

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 13 games
23%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
50%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
lil pleb · 12 games
42%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
dnz · 11 games
27%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dnz · 11 games
36%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 11 games
27%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Fervian · 10 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
LeBronDota · 10 games
60%

Winstrike Team

Phoenix
Phoenix
yamich · 19 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 13 games
46%
Lion
Lion
yamich · 12 games
25%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
dyrachyo · 12 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Panto · 11 games
45%
Lina
Linaoften banned
re1bl · 11 games
55%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
chshrct · 11 games
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
429 picks · 166 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
313 picks · 474 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
304 picks · 525 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
302 picks · 619 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
297 picks · 709 bans
48%
Enchantress
Enchantress
269 picks · 342 bans
47%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
262 picks · 110 bans
51%
Lina
Lina
258 picks · 330 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 36%
Hero pool strength51% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% Spider Pigzs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:26
Spider Pigzs 52%Winstrike Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 31:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancerlightless
46% · 66 games59% · 115 games
TerrorbladeEgor
Terrorblade
Tiny
TinyNo!ob
51% · 75 games55% · 68 games
Sand Kingchshrct
Sand King
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFunn1k
40% · 42 games53% · 131 game
Void Spiritmellojul
Void Spirit
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeOmaR
47% · 176 games53% · 36 games
Windrangeryamich
Windranger
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLeBronDota
45% · 102 games47% · 111 games
AbaddonPanto
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct25:10
Spider Pigzs 56%Winstrike Team 44%
The model gave 56% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 26:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunalightless
53% · 102 games57% · 136 games
Wraith KingEgor
Wraith King
Snapfire
SnapfireNo!ob
51% · 181 game49% · 132 games
Tinymellojul
Tiny
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFunn1k
51% · 102 games46% · 122 games
Axechshrct
Axe
Lion
LionOmaR
48% · 271 game45% · 224 games
Phoenixyamich
Phoenix
Abaddon
AbaddonLeBronDota
43% · 147 games56% · 189 games
Ancient ApparitionPanto
Ancient Apparition
Game 3prediction missed11:25
Spider Pigzs 57%Winstrike Team 43%
The model gave 57% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 33:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladelightless
57% · 94 games44% · 98 games
LunaEgor
Luna
Sand King
Sand KingNo!ob
56% · 82 games48% · 67 games
Ember Spiritmellojul
Ember Spirit
Night Stalker
Night StalkerFunn1k
50% · 25 games46% · 190 games
Marschshrct
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
47% · 104 games49% · 25 games
Windrangeryamich
Windranger
Abaddon
AbaddonLeBronDota
50% · 148 games54% · 73 games
Shadow DemonPanto
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteSpider Pigzs · 59%
Series resultWinstrike Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3