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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smashersloss 1:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hellbear Smashers

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
77%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 21 game
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 20 games
55%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 19 games
79%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Stormstormer · 18 games
39%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 18 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ace · 17 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gilgir · 16 games
50%

Team Spirit

Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 27 games
81%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 23 games
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 23 games
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 17 games
82%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 17 games
82%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 16 games
69%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Miposhka · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 16 games
81%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
429 picks · 166 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
315 picks · 475 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
306 picks · 527 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
303 picks · 615 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
299 picks · 707 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
269 picks · 343 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
260 picks · 145 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
258 picks · 107 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total69% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:14
Hellbear Smashers 39%Team Spirit 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 39:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Axe
AxeAce
40% · 125 games60% · 96 games
LunaYatoro
Luna
Pangolier
PangolierGeneRaL
49% · 155 games56% · 156 games
PuckTORONTOTOKYO
Puck
Windranger
WindrangerStormstormer
49% · 34 games49% · 113 games
TimbersawCollapse
Timbersaw
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGilgir
47% · 126 games56% · 114 games
MiranaMira
Mirana
Hoodwink
HoodwinktOfu
42% · 121 game53% · 82 games
OracleMiposhka
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct24:42
Hellbear Smashers 37%Team Spirit 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 47:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingAce
57% · 90 games47% · 91 game
Phantom AssassinYatoro
Phantom Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierGeneRaL
48% · 68 games47% · 120 games
AxeCollapse
Axe
Lina
LinaStormstormer
40% · 95 games59% · 46 games
WindrangerTORONTOTOKYO
Windranger
Enchantress
EnchantressGilgir
52% · 93 games48% · 119 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixtOfu
52% · 98 games52% · 68 games
Shadow DemonMiposhka
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct25:32
Hellbear Smashers 37%Team Spirit 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 48:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingAce
51% · 113 games48% · 74 games
LifestealerYatoro
Lifestealer
Lina
LinaStormstormer
50% · 129 games49% · 113 games
Storm SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsGeneRaL
48% · 202 games53% · 149 games
Dragon KnightCollapse
Dragon Knight
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LighttOfu
46% · 40 games46% · 108 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark WillowGilgir
56% · 98 games50% · 138 games
Ancient ApparitionMiposhka
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 69%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3