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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
V-Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 19 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 14 games
64%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 12 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 12 games
42%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 11 games
55%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 10 games
30%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Hellscream · 10 games
50%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Kiritych · 10 games
60%

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 15 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 9 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 9 games
44%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 8 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ArrOw · 7 games
43%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 7 games
71%
Viper
Viperoften banned
hAze · 7 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
429 picks · 166 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
315 picks · 475 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
306 picks · 526 bans
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
303 picks · 613 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
298 picks · 710 bans
48%
Enchantress
Enchantress
269 picks · 343 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
263 picks · 147 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
257 picks · 106 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 62%
Hero pool strength50% V-Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total54% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:44
Nemiga Gaming 55%V-Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 50:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaKiritych
53% · 84 games44% · 86 games
LunaTA2000
Luna
Lina
LinaAinkrad
48% · 114 games39% · 39 games
Brewmasterlaise
Brewmaster
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTheChosenOne
55% · 39 games55% · 119 games
InvokerhAze
Invoker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowHeaven
52% · 73 games49% · 66 games
Shadow DemonArrOw
Shadow Demon
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinLodine
58% · 139 games44% · 139 games
Dragon KnightMalady
Dragon Knight
Game 2prediction missed22:43
Nemiga Gaming 52%V-Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 36:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaKiritych
50% · 144 games52% · 69 games
Faceless VoidTA2000
Faceless Void
Batrider
BatriderAinkrad
46% · 107 games49% · 134 games
LinahAze
Lina
Mars
MarsTheChosenOne
47% · 259 games55% · 190 games
Timbersawlaise
Timbersaw
Rubick
RubickHeaven
50% · 118 games54% · 145 games
Dragon KnightMalady
Dragon Knight
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLodine
46% · 151 game51% · 241 game
LionArrOw
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 54%
Series resultV-Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2