Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Fightersloss 1:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PuckChampwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
429 picks · 167 bans
Ancient Apparition
316 picks · 476 bans
Mars
304 picks · 526 bans
Nyx Assassin
303 picks · 615 bans
Puck
299 picks · 711 bans
Enchantress
270 picks · 347 bans
Snapfire
266 picks · 149 bans
Hoodwink
255 picks · 105 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Chicken Fighters
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total54% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:35
Chicken Fighters 46%PuckChamp 54%
The model gave 54% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 39:37.
Game 2prediction correct25:16
Chicken Fighters 46%PuckChamp 54%
The model gave 54% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 33:23.
Game 3prediction correct26:31
Chicken Fighters 46%PuckChamp 54%
The model gave 54% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 44:27.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 54%
Series resultPuckChamp 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3