Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 0:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit
Miranasignature
Mira · 27 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 23 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 23 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 17 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 17 games
Oracleoften banned
Miposhka · 16 games
Tinysignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 16 games
Lionsignature
Mira · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
422 picks · 170 bans
Ancient Apparition
316 picks · 472 bans
Mars
305 picks · 519 bans
Nyx Assassin
301 picks · 610 bans
Puck
297 picks · 712 bans
Enchantress
272 picks · 347 bans
Snapfire
266 picks · 152 bans
Tiny
256 picks · 212 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 60%
Hero pool strength60% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total76% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:20
PuckChamp 24%Team Spirit 76%
The model gave 76% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:25.
Game 2prediction correct40:37
PuckChamp 24%Team Spirit 76%
The model gave 76% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 55:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 76%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2