Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Chicken Fightersloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hellbear Smashers
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 20 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 19 games
Linaoften banned
Gilgir · 17 games
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 17 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ace · 16 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
tOfu · 15 games
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
421 picks · 168 bans
Ancient Apparition
316 picks · 471 bans
Mars
305 picks · 522 bans
Nyx Assassin
301 picks · 614 bans
Puck
297 picks · 713 bans
Enchantress
270 picks · 348 bans
Snapfire
267 picks · 152 bans
Tiny
257 picks · 212 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total62% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:27
Hellbear Smashers 62%Chicken Fighters 38%
The model gave 62% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 45:35.
Game 2prediction correct21:10
Hellbear Smashers 62%Chicken Fighters 38%
The model gave 62% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 27:32.
Game 3prediction correct39:13
Hellbear Smashers 62%Chicken Fighters 38%
The model gave 62% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 31:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 62%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3