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BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Yandexwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 27 games
56%
Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 26 games
58%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
77%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 20 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 20 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Niku · 18 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 17 games
53%

Team Yandex

Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 30 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 28 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 21 game
62%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 19 games
79%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
79%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Malady · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
602 picks · 936 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
536 picks · 430 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 645 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
482 picks · 655 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 951 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 650 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 529 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
378 picks · 233 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% Team Yandex
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total56% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:34
Natus Vincere 47%Team Yandex 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 35:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangergotthejuice
52% · 313 games54% · 265 games
UrsaWatson
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNiku
50% · 490 games50% · 154 games
UnderlordNoticed
Underlord
Bristleback
Bristlebackpma
57% · 340 games46% · 222 games
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
Void Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonZayac
48% · 377 games49% · 669 games
JakiroMalady
Jakiro
Disruptor
DisruptorRiddys
47% · 388 games48% · 598 games
TuskSaksa
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 56%
Series resultTeam Yandex 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1