Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Fightersloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Hellbear Smashers
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 21 game
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 20 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 19 games
Linaoften banned
Gilgir · 17 games
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 17 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ace · 16 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
tOfu · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
417 picks · 171 bans
Mars
313 picks · 522 bans
Ancient Apparition
311 picks · 469 bans
Nyx Assassin
301 picks · 621 bans
Puck
299 picks · 734 bans
Enchantress
277 picks · 355 bans
Snapfire
277 picks · 158 bans
Tiny
264 picks · 217 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total53% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:47
Chicken Fighters 47%Hellbear Smashers 53%
The model gave 53% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 28:47.
Game 2prediction correct22:35
Chicken Fighters 47%Hellbear Smashers 53%
The model gave 53% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 39:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 53%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2