Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniqueloss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 18 games
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 13 games
Lion
Lodine · 11 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 11 games
Dark Willow
Hellscream · 10 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Kiritych · 10 games
Hoodwinksignature
Heaven · 9 games
Lifestealersignature
Kiritych · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
417 picks · 170 bans
Ancient Apparition
311 picks · 468 bans
Mars
311 picks · 523 bans
Nyx Assassin
300 picks · 621 bans
Puck
298 picks · 733 bans
Snapfire
278 picks · 159 bans
Enchantress
275 picks · 356 bans
Tiny
264 picks · 217 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total51% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:29
Team Unique 49%Nemiga Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 53:34.
Game 2prediction correct31:11
Team Unique 49%Nemiga Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 29:06.
Game 3prediction correct12:19
Team Unique 49%Nemiga Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 32:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 51%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3