Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Chicken Fightersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
425 picks · 171 bans
Mars
318 picks · 522 bans
Ancient Apparition
309 picks · 466 bans
Nyx Assassin
299 picks · 625 bans
Puck
299 picks · 754 bans
Snapfire
296 picks · 163 bans
Enchantress
277 picks · 363 bans
Tiny
273 picks · 221 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total55% Chicken Fighters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:26
PuckChamp 45%Chicken Fighters 55%
The model gave 55% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 33:40.
Game 2prediction correct9:28
PuckChamp 45%Chicken Fighters 55%
The model gave 55% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 30:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Fighters · 55%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2