Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Chicken Fighterswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 18 games
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 14 games
Lion
Lodine · 11 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Kiritych · 11 games
Dark Willow
Hellscream · 10 games
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 9 games
Grimstrokesignature
Lodine · 8 games
Lifestealersignature
Kiritych · 7 games
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
429 picks · 172 bans
Mars
318 picks · 525 bans
Ancient Apparition
309 picks · 470 bans
Puck
304 picks · 761 bans
Snapfire
302 picks · 170 bans
Nyx Assassin
301 picks · 626 bans
Enchantress
279 picks · 361 bans
Tiny
277 picks · 222 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Chicken Fighters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:37
Nemiga Gaming 48%Chicken Fighters 52%
The model gave 52% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 41:55.
Game 2prediction correct29:28
Nemiga Gaming 48%Chicken Fighters 52%
The model gave 52% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 35:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Fighters · 52%
Series resultChicken Fighters 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2