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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Spider Pigzsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 13 games
62%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Kiritych · 12 games
58%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 10 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Hellscream · 9 games
56%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 9 games
44%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Lodine · 8 games
63%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
Kiritych · 7 games
71%

Spider Pigzs

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 15 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mitch · 14 games
57%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dnz · 13 games
38%
Rubick
Rubick
dnz · 12 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
dnz · 11 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Lina
Linasignature
No!ob · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
430 picks · 172 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
324 picks · 526 bans
48%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
313 picks · 473 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
309 picks · 174 bans
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
303 picks · 628 bans
58%
Puck
Puck
303 picks · 770 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
281 picks · 360 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
279 picks · 224 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:14
Nemiga Gaming 54%Spider Pigzs 46%
The model gave 54% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 34:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKiritych
37% · 48 games59% · 128 games
Terrorbladelightless
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierAinkrad
50% · 83 games53% · 88 games
InvokerBor@nija
Invoker
Tidehunter
TidehunterTheChosenOne
47% · 97 games46% · 85 games
ViperFunn1k
Viper
Hoodwink
HoodwinkHeaven
43% · 91 game61% · 211 games
Nyx AssassinOmaR
Nyx Assassin
Lion
LionLodine
45% · 197 games50% · 4 games
JakiroLeBronDota
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed36:54
Nemiga Gaming 57%Spider Pigzs 43%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 1:06:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingKiritych
47% · 95 games51% · 102 games
Terrorbladelightless
Terrorblade
Mars
MarsAinkrad
44% · 198 games49% · 190 games
Void SpiritBor@nija
Void Spirit
Broodmother
BroodmotherTheChosenOne
54% · 41 game42% · 135 games
TidehunterFunn1k
Tidehunter
Dark Willow
Dark WillowHeaven
51% · 78 games48% · 82 games
HoodwinkLeBronDota
Hoodwink
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinLodine
60% · 156 games57% · 59 games
Shadow DemonOmaR
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct40:30
Nemiga Gaming 55%Spider Pigzs 45%
The model gave 55% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 46:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautKiritych
51% · 131 game49% · 363 games
PuckBor@nija
Puck
Lina
LinaAinkrad
44% · 137 games53% · 113 games
Lunalightless
Luna
Mars
MarsTheChosenOne
45% · 264 games50% · 150 games
TimbersawFunn1k
Timbersaw
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHeaven
52% · 57 games54% · 126 games
Dark WillowOmaR
Dark Willow
Lion
LionLodine
50% · 328 games53% · 165 games
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 60%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3