Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniquewin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fantastic Fiveloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Fantastic Five
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 13 games
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 12 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
633 · 8 games
Puckoften banned
Askold · 8 games
Grimstroke
633 · 7 games
Underlordoften banned
SuperNova · 6 games
Earth Spirit
Muka · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Muka · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
430 picks · 173 bans
Mars
323 picks · 527 bans
Ancient Apparition
313 picks · 473 bans
Snapfire
310 picks · 174 bans
Puck
303 picks · 770 bans
Nyx Assassin
302 picks · 627 bans
Enchantress
281 picks · 358 bans
Tiny
279 picks · 224 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Fantastic Five
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Team Unique
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:6
Team Unique 63%Fantastic Five 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 25:39.
Game 2prediction missed18:25
Team Unique 63%Fantastic Five 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 36:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unique · 63%
Series resultTeam Unique 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2