Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
V-Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hellbear Smashers
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 25 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 22 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 20 games
Linaoften banned
Stormstormer · 19 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ace · 17 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
MISERY · 16 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
tOfu · 15 games
Death Prophetsignature
Stormstormer · 14 games
V-Gaming
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 13 games
Marssignature
laise · 6 games
Vipersignature
hAze · 6 games
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
TA2000 · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
TA2000 · 4 games
Puckoften banned
hAze · 4 games
Rubick
ArrOw · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
435 picks · 174 bans
Mars
327 picks · 530 bans
Ancient Apparition
316 picks · 476 bans
Snapfire
315 picks · 176 bans
Puck
309 picks · 774 bans
Nyx Assassin
303 picks · 633 bans
Enchantress
281 picks · 360 bans
Tiny
281 picks · 226 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 71%
Hero pool strength55% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:33
Hellbear Smashers 54%V-Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 34:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaAce
Drow RangerTA2000
Ember SpiritStormstormer
LinahAze
AxeGeneRaL
Marslaise
HoodwinkGilgir
Shadow DemonArrOw
PudgetOfu
Treant ProtectorMalady
Game 2prediction correct33:36
Hellbear Smashers 55%V-Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 59:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeAce
LunaTA2000
PuckStormstormer
Timbersawlaise
PangolierGeneRaL
TinyhAze
Treant ProtectortOfu
Shadow DemonArrOw
RubickGilgir
AbaddonMalady
Game 3prediction correct34:11
Hellbear Smashers 55%V-Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 29:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeAce
MedusaTA2000
InvokerStormstormer
LinahAze
Nyx AssassinGeneRaL
Marslaise
RubickGilgir
Dark WillowArrOw
Dragon KnighttOfu
Treant ProtectorMalady
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 59%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3