PNXBET Invitationals Southeast Asia Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingwin 2:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team SMGloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Motivate.Trust Gaming
Clockwerksignature
Q · 12 games
Lionsignature
Q · 11 games
Snapfiresignature
Q · 8 games
Elder Titan
LionaX · 7 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Fearless · 7 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
LionaX · 6 games
Juggernautsignature
JaCkky · 6 games
Tinysignature
Fearless · 6 games
Team SMG
Lion
AhFu · 12 games
Grimstroke
AhFu · 9 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 8 games
Enchantresssignature
AhFu · 8 games
Marssignature
Ohaiyo · 8 games
Tusk
AhFu · 8 games
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 7 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
438 picks · 173 bans
Mars
329 picks · 527 bans
Snapfire
319 picks · 180 bans
Ancient Apparition
317 picks · 477 bans
Puck
312 picks · 768 bans
Nyx Assassin
303 picks · 623 bans
Tiny
281 picks · 228 bans
Enchantress
279 picks · 356 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total57% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:51
Motivate.Trust Gaming 57%Team SMG 43%
The model gave 57% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 47:21.
Game 2prediction missed20:37
Motivate.Trust Gaming 57%Team SMG 43%
The model gave 57% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Team SMG in 32:17.
Game 3prediction correct45:23
Motivate.Trust Gaming 57%Team SMG 43%
The model gave 57% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 38:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 57%
Series resultMotivate.Trust Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3