?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
strongboyswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 43 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 40 games
68%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 36 games
64%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 35 games
69%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 33 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 33 games
52%
Tusk
Tusk
slimeyao · 32 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 31 game
55%

strongboys

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lowskill · 11 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ponlo · 11 games
45%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Ponlo · 10 games
70%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stojkov · 9 games
67%
Marci
Marcisignature
ChodΣX · 8 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Tobi · 7 games
43%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 7 games
43%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Tobi · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
600 picks · 938 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
544 picks · 428 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
495 picks · 643 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
494 picks · 654 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 950 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 656 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
388 picks · 531 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
380 picks · 234 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:25
HULIGANI 59%strongboys 41%
The model gave 59% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 46:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorv1olent-
59% · 59 games47% · 55 games
Lunabashka
Luna
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritxn丶e
54% · 232 games50% · 216 games
TimbersawChodΣX
Timbersaw
Largo
LargoBb3px
55% · 30 games45% · 408 games
TinyStojkov
Tiny
Jakiro
JakiroRESPECT
50% · 300 games42% · 35 games
GrimstrokePonlo
Grimstroke
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsayuw
52% · 119 games53% · 26 games
OmniknightUndyne_
Omniknight
Game 2prediction missed29:40
HULIGANI 59%strongboys 41%
The model gave 59% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by strongboys in 43:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterv1olent-
53% · 358 games51% · 321 game
TimbersawChodΣX
Timbersaw
Viper
Viperxn丶e
63% · 82 games49% · 153 games
InvokerStojkov
Invoker
Mars
MarsBb3px
47% · 296 games48% · 108 games
Kezbashka
Kez
Jakiro
JakiroRESPECT
48% · 524 games49% · 548 games
TinyPonlo
Tiny
Tusk
Tusksayuw
47% · 449 games48% · 579 games
WarlockUndyne_
Warlock
Game 3prediction missed13:37
HULIGANI 60%strongboys 40%
The model gave 60% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by strongboys in 36:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinv1olent-
50% · 189 games49% · 202 games
Morphlingbashka
Morphling
Puck
Puckxn丶e
55% · 251 game48% · 107 games
InvokerStojkov
Invoker
Razor
RazorBb3px
51% · 67 games49% · 160 games
UnderlordChodΣX
Underlord
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonRESPECT
50% · 229 games48% · 536 games
JakiroUndyne_
Jakiro
Tiny
Tinysayuw
47% · 356 games53% · 87 games
Nyx AssassinPonlo
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 68%
Series resultstrongboys 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3