Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 13 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Kiritych · 12 games
Lion
Lodine · 10 games
Dark Willow
Hellscream · 9 games
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 9 games
Grimstrokesignature
Lodine · 8 games
Lifestealersignature
Kiritych · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
439 picks · 176 bans
Mars
329 picks · 535 bans
Snapfire
326 picks · 183 bans
Ancient Apparition
316 picks · 479 bans
Puck
314 picks · 778 bans
Nyx Assassin
306 picks · 623 bans
Tiny
285 picks · 232 bans
Enchantress
282 picks · 356 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total50% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:16
PuckChamp 50%Nemiga Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 31:49.
Game 2prediction correct10:48
PuckChamp 50%Nemiga Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 35:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 50%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2