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i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 24 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
White丶Album · 23 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 21 game
57%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
LaNm · 15 games
53%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 15 games
53%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 14 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
LaNm · 13 games
54%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
LaNm · 12 games
50%

Vici Gaming

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Ori · 24 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 22 games
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 21 game
48%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 21 game
71%
Spectre
Spectresignature
poyoyo · 19 games
79%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 18 games
83%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pyw · 17 games
65%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Pyw · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
442 picks · 173 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
329 picks · 535 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
328 picks · 186 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
314 picks · 478 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
310 picks · 784 bans
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
306 picks · 618 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
286 picks · 233 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
283 picks · 359 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total68% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:15
Team Aster 40%Vici Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 42:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMonet
56% · 116 games54% · 73 games
Lunapoyoyo
Luna
Magnus
MagnusWhite丶Album
44% · 76 games53% · 64 games
Ember SpiritOri
Ember Spirit
Batrider
BatriderXxs
47% · 109 games52% · 106 games
TimbersawELeVeN
Timbersaw
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoBoKa
53% · 108 games49% · 100 games
Ancient ApparitionDy
Ancient Apparition
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernLaNm
47% · 106 games48% · 172 games
LionPyw
Lion
Game 2prediction missed35:16
Team Aster 39%Vici Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 44:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenMonet
69% · 14 games54% · 60 games
Templar Assassinpoyoyo
Templar Assassin
Razor
RazorWhite丶Album
55% · 76 games48% · 71 game
LeshracOri
Leshrac
Sand King
Sand KingXxs
51% · 46 games37% · 32 games
BroodmotherELeVeN
Broodmother
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeBoBoKa
47% · 117 games50% · 24 games
HoodwinkPyw
Hoodwink
Lich
LichLaNm
43% · 3 games49% · 69 games
ClockwerkDy
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 68%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2