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BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Yandexloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 32 games
56%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 22 games
73%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 21 game
81%
Pugna
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 19 games
68%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Pure~ · 18 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 17 games
71%

Team Yandex

Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 29 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 27 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 21 game
62%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 19 games
79%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
79%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Malady · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
600 picks · 937 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
543 picks · 428 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
495 picks · 642 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
494 picks · 654 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 950 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 655 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
387 picks · 532 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
380 picks · 233 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total61% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:22
Tundra Esports 54%Team Yandex 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 49:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaPure~
53% · 191 game55% · 146 games
SvenWatson
Sven
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
50% · 318 games43% · 83 games
BrewmasterNoticed
Brewmaster
Largo
Largo33
53% · 32 games46% · 36 games
Earth SpiritChira JUNIOR
Earth Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
46% · 118 games54% · 177 games
Ancient ApparitionMalady
Ancient Apparition
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanAri
53% · 223 games46% · 440 games
TuskSaksa
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 61%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1