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PNXBET Invitationals Southeast Asia Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 1:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 12 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
woMy · 9 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
woMy · 7 games
43%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 7 games
43%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Lym- · 6 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 6 games
17%
Axe
Axeoften banned
db- · 5 games
60%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
db- · 5 games
60%

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 12 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
AlaCrity · 12 games
58%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Poloson · 9 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 8 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
343 · 7 games
43%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
AlaCrity · 7 games
29%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Meracle · 6 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Poloson · 6 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
453 picks · 176 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
342 picks · 192 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
337 picks · 540 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
318 picks · 477 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
318 picks · 796 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
312 picks · 617 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
292 picks · 233 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
284 picks · 363 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 55%
Hero pool strength56% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total71% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:14
Army Geniuses 29%Nigma Galaxy SEA 71%
The model gave 71% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 24:10.
Game 2prediction missed36:23
Army Geniuses 29%Nigma Galaxy SEA 71%
The model gave 71% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 48:22.
Game 3prediction correct24:35
Army Geniuses 29%Nigma Galaxy SEA 71%
The model gave 71% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 36:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 71%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3