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i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EHOMEloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 32 games
81%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 29 games
72%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 24 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 23 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 19 games
74%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 18 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
y` · 18 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
XinQ · 18 games
56%

EHOME

Mars
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 22 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 21 game
62%
Tusk
Tusk
xNova · 20 games
45%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Frisk · 15 games
40%
Lion
Lion
Frisk · 13 games
46%
Luna
Lunasignature
Frisk · 13 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Frisk · 12 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chalice · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
456 picks · 179 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
346 picks · 193 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 542 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
318 picks · 806 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
317 picks · 479 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
313 picks · 614 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
294 picks · 233 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
283 picks · 362 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total82% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:22
LGD Gaming 69%EHOME 31%
The model gave 69% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 27:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackAme
56% · 36 games48% · 53 games
MorphlingSylar
Morphling
Kunkka
KunkkaNothingToSay
45% · 41 game63% · 4 games
Skywrath MageXm
Skywrath Mage
Axe
AxeFaith_bian
47% · 64 games42% · 74 games
Earth SpiritChalice
Earth Spirit
Undying
UndyingXinQ
46% · 29 gameslittle data
PudgeFrisk
Pudge
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyverny`
71% · 49 games49% · 88 games
SnapfirexNova
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct33:12
LGD Gaming 71%EHOME 29%
The model gave 71% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 29:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaAme
48% · 38 games50% · 48 games
BristlebackSylar
Bristleback
Magnus
MagnusNothingToSay
64% · 19 gameslittle data
TinkerXm
Tinker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
52% · 34 games46% · 75 games
HoodwinkChalice
Hoodwink
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonXinQ
52% · 17 games50% · 30 games
KunkkaFrisk
Kunkka
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyverny`
47% · 45 gameslittle data
Bounty HunterxNova
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 82%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2