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BIX Invitationals Summer · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 0:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team SMGwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 14 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
woMy · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 8 games
38%
Mars
Marsoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
43%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Lym- · 6 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 6 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 6 games
33%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
40%

Team SMG

Lion
Lion
Roddgeee · 11 games
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 9 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
AhFu · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
AhFu · 8 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 7 games
71%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 6 games
83%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kpii · 5 games
40%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Moon · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
456 picks · 179 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
347 picks · 194 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 548 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
322 picks · 807 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
318 picks · 477 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
315 picks · 613 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
296 picks · 234 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
285 picks · 362 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Team SMG
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total65% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:20
Army Geniuses 40%Team SMG 60%
The model gave 60% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 17:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingMamangDaya
42% · 98 games40% · 24 games
Anti-MageMidOne
Anti-Mage
Tidehunter
TidehunterwoMy
51% · 102 games50% · 50 games
Winter WyvernMoon
Winter Wyvern
Venomancer
Venomancerdb-
43% · 18 games51% · 118 games
Marskpii
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLym-
60% · 79 games49% · 42 games
GyrocopterAhFu
Gyrocopter
55% · 63 games
AbaddonRoddgeee
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct7:23
Army Geniuses 43%Team SMG 57%
The model gave 57% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 16:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherwoMy
47% · 38 games60% · 58 games
LunaMidOne
Luna
Axe
Axedb-
47% · 84 games49% · 28 games
BatriderMoon
Batrider
Magnus
MagnusMamangDaya
51% · 54 games29% · 3 games
Brewmasterkpii
Brewmaster
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLym-
58% · 87 games48% · 122 games
LionAhFu
Lion
41% · 52 games
AbaddonRoddgeee
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 65%
Series resultTeam SMG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2