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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
V-Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Ainkrad · 20 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 13 games
54%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Kiritych · 12 games
58%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 11 games
36%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 10 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Hellscream · 9 games
56%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Lodine · 8 games
63%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 7 games
43%

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 11 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 6 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
TA2000 · 4 games
25%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 4 games
25%
Rubick
Rubick
ArrOw · 4 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 4 games
25%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 3 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
455 picks · 179 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
350 picks · 195 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
346 picks · 549 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
324 picks · 813 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 477 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
313 picks · 612 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
299 picks · 239 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
286 picks · 362 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 75%
Hero pool strength52% V-Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total51% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:14
Nemiga Gaming 49%V-Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 45:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerKiritych
50% · 59 games49% · 35 games
Drow RangerTA2000
Drow Ranger
Pangolier
PangolierAinkrad
53% · 111 games51% · 103 games
Timbersawlaise
Timbersaw
Death Prophet
Death ProphetTheChosenOne
52% · 169 games44% · 83 games
ViperhAze
Viper
Hoodwink
HoodwinkHeaven
54% · 95 games47% · 104 games
AbaddonMalady
Abaddon
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernLodine
53% · 95 games46% · 204 games
LionArrOw
Lion
Game 2prediction correct34:32
Nemiga Gaming 51%V-Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 44:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKiritych
39% · 82 games48% · 92 games
TerrorbladeTA2000
Terrorblade
Doom
DoomTheChosenOne
58% · 78 games46% · 72 games
ViperhAze
Viper
Invoker
InvokerAinkrad
60% · 105 games43% · 106 games
Axelaise
Axe
Hoodwink
HoodwinkHeaven
54% · 125 games47% · 112 games
EnchantressArrOw
Enchantress
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinLodine
56% · 215 games46% · 223 games
LionMalady
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 51%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2