European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ilbirs eSportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
Panda · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Panda · 4 games
Warlock
Delight · 4 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Huskaroften banned
Panda · 3 games
Ringmaster
waveformn · 3 games
Sand King
Panda · 3 games
Ilbirs eSports
Faceless Void
xsvampire · 2 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
egx · 1 game
Axeoften banned
Askold · 1 game
Dark Willow
xsvampire · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
egx · 1 game
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Norma · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
600 picks · 933 bans
Tusk
543 picks · 423 bans
Centaur Warrunner
496 picks · 642 bans
Dragon Knight
494 picks · 657 bans
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 943 bans
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 652 bans
Mars
386 picks · 531 bans
Warlock
378 picks · 232 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 31%
Hero pool strength56% Ilbirs eSports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:27
Winter Bear 62%Ilbirs eSports 38%
The model gave 62% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 41:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter4IVAN
Windrangeregx
Ember SpiritPanda
BatriderMinD_ContRoL
RazorLurker
Tinyxsvampire
Marciwaveformn
Treant ProtectorDelight
Game 2prediction correct45:48
Winter Bear 58%Ilbirs eSports 42%
The model gave 58% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 1:31:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LargoLurker
Terrorbladeegx
InvokerPanda
Centaur WarrunnerMinD_ContRoL
Tinywaveformn
Hoodwinkxsvampire
WarlockDelight
Alchemist4IVAN
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 68%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2